A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Both authors two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has got something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
